As mortgage rates finally show signs of easing, homeowners are asking if refinancing makes sense. According to ICE Mortgage Technology, as of September 8th the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate for conforming loans was 6.36%. At that level, about 3.1 million homeowners could benefit from refinancing.
For anyone considering a San Diego refinance, this is especially important. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates soon, the opportunity to lower monthly payments may be just around the corner. At Transparent Mortgage, we’ve seen more San Diego homeowners revisit their options, asking whether locking in a lower rate now or waiting could save them the most money.
ICE classifies a mortgage as “in-the-money” if today’s refinance rate is at least 0.75 percentage points lower than the borrower’s current loan. This is a conservative approach, but it accounts for the real costs of refinancing.
Neighbors Bank research backs this up, showing that smaller drops — like 0.25% — often aren’t enough to outweigh the fees. As a San Diego mortgage broker, we emphasize this point with clients: refinancing only pays off if the savings are meaningful and sustainable.
Refinancing makes sense when the savings surpass the upfront costs before you move or sell. For example, if you pay $4,000 in closing costs but save $200/month, your break-even point is 20 months. Stay longer than that, and you’re ahead.
Neighbors Bank ran the numbers for a $386,339 loan:
0.25% rate drop → still a loss after 3 years.
0.50% drop → break-even at just over 3 years.
0.75% drop → break-even in under 3 years.
1.00% drop → recoup costs in ~20 months and save nearly $5,000 in 3 years.
This math is crucial for San Diego refinance decisions. Homeowners in higher-priced areas like San Diego often see bigger dollar-savings even with modest rate reductions.
How long you’ll stay: If you plan to move soon, refinancing may not pay off.
Loan type & term: A 15-year refinance often delivers faster savings compared to a 30-year. Conventional loans usually outperform FHA, VA, or USDA when it comes to cost-benefit.
Home value & location: In high-cost areas like San Diego, even small rate improvements can mean thousands in savings.
At Transparent Mortgage, we guide homeowners through these variables so they can make confident decisions about refinancing.
A Truework survey showed that more than half of recent buyers are betting on refinancing later when rates drop. That’s risky. Unless the cuts are significant, the math doesn’t always work.
As Jake Vehige of Neighbors Bank explained, refinancing isn’t a guarantee. The key is weighing upfront costs, expected savings, and your personal timeline. A trusted San Diego mortgage broker can help crunch those numbers and give you clarity.
If you’re a San Diego homeowner wondering whether refinancing makes sense, now is the time to start running the numbers. With roughly 3 million homeowners nationwide in a position to save, the opportunity is real — but not automatic.
At Transparent Mortgage, our mission is simple: empowering homeowners. Whether you’re exploring a refinance or just curious about today’s market, we’re here to help you make the smartest financial move for your future.
